TPPA – SeaDemon Says

November 9, 2016November 9, 2016

Trumped

Donald Trump is the 45th President of the United States of America

A few hours before Hillary Clinton conceded defeat, signs were everywhere that she was heading down the abyss. On Twitter people were talking about moving to Canada while the Canadian Immigration website crashed for reasons not yet known to us. Hillary finally conceded defeat making Trump the President-elect. The next four years of his Presidency is going to be worth watching.

I can understand how the supporters of the Democrats feel right now, my home state of Selangor fell to what was the Barisan Alternatif in 2008 and the first 24 hours was filled with uncertainties. In the end, it was business as usual albeit having to sufer the occasional water outtages as well as incompetent solid wastes collection contractors. Other than that the state runs on autopilot while the politicians in charge of the state are busy giving ceramahs non-stop.

Trump has promised to make America great again. To make America great again America’s military would also be made great. It also means that America’s businesses will be given priority over foreign-owned ones.

How does this augur for Malaysia?

Firstly, the Republican-heavy Congress would not pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement as Trump sees the TPPA as a vehicle that would allow Asian businesses to take over the American economy. If it were to go ahead a major tweaking of the TPPA needs to be done – tariffs would be raised to favour the American economy and that would not go down well with the other potential TPPA partners. Anyhow, with the TPPA still not ratified, Trump is likely to hold to his pledge to withdraw the United States from the free-trade agreement. The good thing from that would be Malaysia’s continued hold on its protectionist policies aimed at preserving the Bumiputra rights as well as the protection for local industries.

Malaysia’s manufactured exports to the US saw an increase by 13 percent recently. With Trump favouring the great American economy, this would be greatly affected since Malaysia’s economy is 90 percent reliant on exports. Nomura Holdings in early July 2016 in a report titled ‘Trumping Asia’ bluntly said that if Trump wins, Asia loses. The Philippines would be the country in the South East Asian region that would be most affected by Trump’s Presidency while Malaysia is fourth after Indonesia.

Chart image from Boomberg with source from Nomura

It is not surprising then to see Prayuth Chan-O-Cha of Thailand, Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, Duterte of the Philippines and Najib Razak of Malaysia visit China in May, September, mid October and end October respectively to strengthen economic ties and increase trade with China. These leaders must have predicted that the Democrats would lose to the GOP and knew that if trade is not increased with the largest Asian economic power these nations would stand to lose. Purchasing the Chinese corvettes was definitely a good decision now given that any purchase from the Western powers would come with lots of strings attached.

China is not without danger because of Trump’s Presidency. With levels breaching the USD 600 billion level, China is the US’s largest trading partner, and as President, Trump could impose punitive duties that includes a 15 percent tariff on China for a maximum of 150 days without having to go to Congress for approval.

Militarily, Trump had made a statement on China’s expansion in the South China Sea. “We have rebuilt China, and yet they will go in the South China Sea and build a military fortress the likes of which perhaps the world has not seen,” Trump said. “Amazing, actually. They do that, and they do that at will because they have no respect for our president and they have no respect for our country.”

I am of the opinion that the term “We have rebuilt China” used by Trump is the large balance of payments deficit that the US has with China. If the US could ‘prove’ that China is a currency manipulator, which the US Treasury could easily declare without needing the approval of the Congress, it could trigger a range of trade restrictions against China – a form of pressure for China to ‘respect’ the US as required by Trump to make America great again. Which is why the visit by Najib Razak to China recently was not an act of ‘kow-towing‘ to a Big Brother, but rather saying “Malaysia is a friend, how can you (China) help us so we can help you?” China now needs its South East Asian neighbours as well as Russia as its allies.

We have stepped into an era that will be filled with surprises and not less scarily challenging. The only consolation is that George Soros who finances both the Hillary campaign machinery as well as the Opposition and pro-Opposition organisations in Malaysia will find it hard to thrive. Perhaps as a gesture of goodwill Trump should look into the affairs of the Open Society Institute and how its financing of the Arab Spring has given rise to the terrorist activities in North Africa, the Middle East as well as in South East Asia and take criminal action against the OSI.

As Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister said early this year, “We are all discovering Donald Trump, as he is himself: there is a stream of consciousness approach to policy pronouncements. One can only hope that it evolves towards addressing the strategic interests of the United States in the world.”

There may be a side to Donald Trump that we have not yet seen. Others with better insight into things would probably have a better read of his character. Of course, I am not talking about the Pribumi supremo. He never has anything good to say.

Trump would also need friends as China does, and he would look at nations with leaders who are level-headed as they are smart. I was about to end this post when I saw this Tweet on my timeline:

A tweet by Jonathan Head, BBC's Southeast Asia correspondent — A tweet by Jonathan Head, BBC’s Southeast Asia correspondent

Apparently, not only is Najib Razak a golf buddy of Barack Obama. He is also Trump’s favourite Prime Minister, as signed on a photograph taken of the two of them. As I said, leaders have to have foresight and know what is best for the country he leads. And a line in Shakespeare’s Henry VIII that reminds me exactly of this situation:

Heat not a furnace for your foe so hot that it do singe yourself.

Najib Razak's looking forward to meeting Trump...again — Najib Razak’s looking forward to meeting Trump…again

I call that a masterstroke from a great Statesman.

January 11, 2016

Wahid Omar On TPPA

KENYATAAN DATO SRI ABDUL WAHID OMAR BERHUBUNG INSIDEN DI FORUM BANTAH TPPA
Assalam rakan2.

Pada hari Sabtu 9 Januari 2016, saya telah hadir di Sidang Kemuncak TPPA anjuran Bantah TPPA & Kongres Rakyat di IDCC, Shah Alam. Saya mendaftar secara online hari sebelumnya setelah mendapat persetujuan Tok Pa yang turut menghantar beberapa pegawai MITI. Tok Pa berada di Pulau Pinang untuk program penerangan TPPA.

Tujuan kehadiran saya adalah untuk mendengar sendiri isu2 yang dibangkitkan oleh ahli2 panel yang terdiri daripada Saudara Nizam Mahshar, Cikgu Azmi, Prof Gurdial Singh & Pn Chee Yoke Ling sementara moderator adalah Saudara Rizal Jaafar. YABhg Tun Dr Mahathir turut hadir tetapi tidak memberikan ucaptama kerana kurang sihat. Kita doakan agar Tun segera sembuh.

Sidang dibuka oleh Saudara Azlan Awang MTEM. Saya sampai jam 8.50am kerana poster sidang menyatakan acara diadakan 9.00am-1.00pm. Setelah sampai barulah saya diberitahu bahawa Majlis dijadualkan hanya bermula 10.00am. Silap saya kerana tidak mendapat pengesahan waktu. Walaubagaimanapun Majlis hanya bermula 10.30am setelah ketibaan Tun.

Pelbagai isu telah dibangkitkan termasuklah kajian kos dan manfaat, soalan mengapa perlu tergesa-gesa, rundingan sulit, perlindungan harta intelek, kemungkinan kenaikan kos ubat, kedaulatan negara, perolehan Kerajaan, syarikat milik Kerajaan & kepentingan Bumiputera.

Saya berpendapat banyak kebimbangan atau kegusaran mereka tidak benar. Sebagai contoh, ada yang menyatakan kedaulatan negara tergadai sehingga Kerajaan negeri akan kehilangan kuasa untuk menetapkan syarat2 penukaran kegunaan tanah, sehingga menghalang negara untuk menetapkan piawaian halal dan sehingga TPPA mengatasi Perlembagaan Persekutuan. Ini tidak benar. Antara lain, Artikel 4(1) Perlembagaan Persekutuan memperuntukkan “Perlembagaan ini ialah undang-undang utama Persekutuan dan apa-apa undang-undang yang diluluskan selepas Hari Merdeka yang tidak selaras dengan Perlembagaan ini adalah tidak sah setakat ketidakselarasan itu.“.

Ada juga yang membangkitkan kebimbangan tentang peruntukan mekanisma penyelesaian pertikaian Pelabur-Negara (ISDS mechanism). Sebenarnya mekanisma ISDS melalui tribunal arbitrasi antarabangsa telah lama digunakan. Saya sendiri pernah terlibat ketika menerajui Telekom Malaysia (TM) tahun 2004-2008 dimana TM telah memfailkan kes ‘expropriation’ terhadap Kerajaan Ghana yang telah melanggar perjanjian dan mengambil alih penguasaan Lembaga Pengarah & pengurusan syarikat Ghana Telecommunications daripada TM setelah pertukaran Kerajaan dimana Presiden Kufour telah menggantikan Presiden Rawlings. Proses arbitrasi tersebut telah mendorong Kerajaan Ghana menyelesaikan pertikaian dan memberi pampasan setimpal kepada TM. Walaupun peruntukan ISDS dalam TPPA ini akan mengikat Kerajaan, tuntutan akan hanya berkuatkuasa setelah proses perundingan selama 6 bulan dijalankan sebelum dirujuk ke tribunal arbitrasi antarabangsa. Ia juga akan memberi perlindungan kepada syarikat2 Malaysia yang kini telah melabur lebih RM600 billion ke luar negara termasuklah dalam negara2 TPP.

Balik ke prosiding Sidang Kemuncak TPPA, setelah panel selesai membuat pembentangan, saya telah memohon untuk bercakap dan memberi sedikit pencerahan. Malangnya permintaan saya ditolak atas sebab kesuntukan masa. Setelah beberapa kali mengulang permintaan, akhirnya saya akur dengan keputusan penganjur. Kita perlu hormat majlis orang.

Izinkan saya menyentuh 3 perkara iaitu isu Penjajahan, Kos dan Manfaat dan isu Rundingan Perjanjian.

1. Penjajahan : Perjanjian TPPA melibatkan 12 buah negara iaitu 5 dari benua Amerika (Amerika Syarikat, Kanada, Mexico, Peru & Chile), 4 dari ASEAN (Malaysia, Singapura, Brunei & Vietnam) dan 3 dari Pasifik (Jepun, Australia & New Zealand). Tiada negara yang dipaksa untuk menyertai TPP. Semuanya termasuk Malaysia menyertai TPP kerana percaya akan manfaat bersama (mutual benefits) yang bakal dinikmati. Malaysia sedar kita merupakan negara kecil dengan penduduk seramai hanya 31 juta dan saiz KDNK (GDP) sekitar USD300 billion. Sebab itulah kita menjuarai penubuhan Komuniti Ekonomi ASEAN bermula 31 Disember 2015 yang membolehkan saiz pasaran kita berkembang menjadi 620 juta penduduk & saiz KDNK USD2.5 trillion. Dengan menyertai TPP, saiz pasaran akan lebih meluas lagi dengan jumlah penduduk 800 juta & saiz KDNK USD27.5 trillion iaitu 40% daripada saiz ekonomi dunia.

2. Kos dan Manfaat : Dalam menyertai mana2 blok atau perjanjian perdagangan, memang ada kos dan ada manfaatnya. Selain analisa dalaman, Kerajaan telah meminta Institut Kajian Strategi & Antarabangsa (ISIS) untuk melaksanakan Analisa Kepentingan Nasional dan PriceWaterhouse Coopers (PWC) untuk melaksanakan Kajian Kos & Manfaat. ISIS telah membuat kesimpulan bahawa penyertaan Malaysia dalam TPP adalah demi kepentingan negara. Manakala PWC membuat kesimpulan TPPA bakal memberikan manfaat bersih kepada ekonomi Malaysia dengan potensi peningkatan ekonomi atau KDNK antara USD107-211 billion dalam jangkamassa 2018-2027 atau peningkatan 0.60%-1.15% pada tahun 2027.

Bank Dunia juga dalam lapuran ‘Global Economic Prospects January 2016’ mereka telah menyentuh tentang potensi implikasi ekonomi makro TPP dalam mukasurat 219-233. Antara lain, Bank Dunia telah menyatakan bahawa Vietnam & Malaysia adalah antara negara TPP yang bakal menikmati manfaat terbanyak dengan peningkatan KDNK masing2 sebanyak 10% dan 8% menjelang tahun 2030. Peningkatan ekonomi yang berterusan akan membolehkan rakyat mendapat peluang perniagaan dan pekerjaan yang lebih baik yang seterusnya akan meningkatkan pendapatan isirumah rakyat Malaysia. Jadi berdasarkan kajian yang telah dijalankan, adalah jelas bahawa penyertaan Malaysia dalam TPP lebih mendatangkan manfaat.

3. Rundingan Perjanjian : Sejak awal lagi Perdana Menteri telah memberi jaminan bahawa Malaysia hanya akan menyertai TPP atas terma-terma yang boleh kita terima. Saya, DS Ahmad Husni & DS Idris Jala adalah antara menteri-menteri ekonomi yang telah membantu Tok Pa dalam rundingan TPPA. Penglibatan saya bermula 2 tahun lalu setelah menyertai Kabinet.

Memang sukar untuk memuktamadkan perjanjian sebesar ini yang melibatkan negara2 kuasa besar. Pelbagai usaha telah dibuat untuk memastikan pihak AS memahami kedudukan & keperluan Malaysia. Ini termasuk mengadakan sesi penerangan kepada Wakil Perdagangan AS tentang polisi Bumiputera & peranan syarikat2 berkaitan Kerajaan. Saya percaya Tok Pa & pasukan MITI dengan sokongan lain2 Kementerian & agensi telah membuat yang terbaik mendapatkan terma-terma yang perlu untuk memelihara kepentingan negara. Ini termasuk pengiktirafan polisi Bumiputera dalam perjanjian TPP.

Perkara ini tercapai kerana Malaysia telah menyertai rundingan awal. Sekiranya Malaysia tidak termasuk dalam senarai 12 negara awal TPP, Malaysia akan terpaksa menerima terma-terma perjanjian sedia ada kemudian. Kemungkinan ini adalah benar (real) kerana 3 buah negara ASEAN lain iaitu Indonesia, Thailand & Filipina telah menyatakan hasrat mereka untuk menyertai TPP selepas ini. Akhir sekali, Kerajaan akan membentangkan perjanjian TPP untuk kelulusan Dewan Rakyat pada 26&27 Januari dan Dewan Negara pada 28 Januari. Apa juga kegelisahan atau kebimbangan boleh diutarakan oleh Ahli2 Parlimen dan akan dijawab oleh Tok Pa pada sesi Parlimen tersebut.

Marilah kita bersikap membina & bersiap sedia untuk memastikan syarikat2 & rakyat kita dapat memanfaatkan TPPA yang bakal kita tandatangani setelah kelulusan Parlimen nanti. Terima kasih.
Abdul Wahid Omar

10.01.16.

October 5, 2015

We Signed The TPPA! Or Did We?

Zombies have begun posting lies about the conclusion of the TPPA negotiations accusing the Malaysian government of signing the agreement without first bringing the points for deliberations in Parliament.

Then again, they are zombies. Brain-dead.

The following is the press release from the MITI on the conclusion of TPPA negotiations:

For those with vision problems, here’s the shorter and larger version from the New Straits Times:

In short, all parties, the USA included, will have to get the agreement ratified by their respective lawmakers before they can sign the agreement:

In another development, Malaysia’s secret service, the TADIKA KEMAS, has identified two agents from the FBI instructed by the opposition and Mahathir’s goons to arrest the Malaysian Prime Minister: