Darth Sidious Makes Perfect Economic Sense

  
The Emperor has spoken.

In a statement posted by Malaysiakini his Lordship has made it clear that in order for the economy to recover, the rebel Najib Razak must he removed. Only then will worldwide commodity prices rise, China’s stock markets will improve, oil prices will hit USD200 per barrel, the oil and gas company Hercules will rise from the dead, and oil and gas companies like Technip, Schlumberger etc will reinstate tens of thousands of workers who lost their job because of Najib and the 1MDB.

In a related development, the Jawas on Tattooine have also complained about plunging sales of used droids saying the steep rise of the USD against other galactic currencies have hurt their livelihood.

It is a known fact published by the various zombie-portals that Najib Razak, the rebel from planet Pekan, has been undermining the economy of virtually all star systems within this galaxy.

The Zombie Apocalypse 

I’m sharing the item below because it is very relevant to those who fear the decline of the Ringgit versus the Greenback. This fear is further underscored by zombies who think the world is going to end tomorrow.

Malay Mail Online) – Today, the Ringgit breached RM4.00 for a dollar.
When I logged in to my Facebook and Twitter accounts, 9 out of 10 posts that appeared on my timeline were slamming the Government on the Ringgit.
To sum them up, youths who dominate social media today were posting comments as though tomorrow spells the end for Malaysia.
And in just the past month, I saw how Malaysians transform from being constitutional experts, to aviation analysts and now economics.
Some even went as far as pushing the blame on Umno and Najib. There’s this group called Suara Rakyat who likes to say “other countries are doing better because Umno is not there in their country”.
Of course, when you have a narrow, myopic view, you will tend to miss out the fact that over the 5 year period,
• Russian Roubles lost 114per cent against USD
• Indonesian Rupiah lost 51per cent against USD
• Indian Rupees lost 38per cent against USD
• Norwegian Krone lost 37per cent against USD
• Australian Dollars lost 24per cent against USD
• Euro lost 20per cent against USD
• Thai Baht lost 10per cent against USD
Do I need to go on?
One of the contributing factors faced by these countries is the drop in oil prices. Crude oil was trading at US$70-80/bbl few years ago and today it has fallen below US$ 50 per bbl. 
Also, US is not our only trading partner and the performance of our Ringgit is not measured against US dollars alone.
When we look at the Ringgit, 
• we strengthened against Canadian Dollars (2per cent)
• we strengthened against Indian Rupees (10 per cent)
• we strengthened against Japanese Yen (14 per cent)
• we strengthened against Indonesian Rupiah (18 per cent) 
I don’t need to name more currencies, do I?
Do you know that the value of our trade with India, Japan and Indonesia is close to 20per cent?
Understandably, we are quick to feed on negative news and quick to comment like an expert on our Facebook and Twitter. That’s how things work these days.
Of course, none of you made reference to 1998. 
No one remembered the time when the Ringgit crashed to as low as RM4.725 for a dollar on 7 January 1998 (BNM selling rate, over the counter was more than RM4.80).
All of you, who were quick to comment about the state of our economy on your Facebook, were still in school.
So none of you knew, none of you remembered, none of you experienced what happened in 1998 when Anwar Ibrahim was Finance Minister.
Back then
a) People were losing jobs or had difficulty in getting jobs
b) Households were squeezed
b) average lending rate was 12.16 per cent
c) Inflation was close to 3 per cent without subsidy removals. 
If any of you doubt the 2-3 per cent inflation numbers today and felt it is way higher, apply the same thought to 1998-1999.
And yes, average lending rate was over 12 per cent. Those were the days.
You may say it is history and you may continue to slam the Prime Minister, the Central Bank and the Government for today’s numbers.
But the next time before you give you get upset and share your anger on Facebook or Twitter, ask yourself whether or not the Ringgit — Dollar exchange rate affects you, and how.
1. Do you shop online from US websites? 
2. Are you planning to fly over to US for a holiday?
3. Are you a Malaysian studying in the US?
4. Do you import goods to be resold in Malaysia?
5. Do you buy necessities and food from the US to use here?
6. Do you at all use the US dollar in your daily life?
Because my dear, only if you answer yes to the above, you are affected. Otherwise, what are you shouting and so worried about?
Your salary is still denominated in Ringgit and you don’t buy necessities with US dollars. 
Sure, no one can deny that it has some impact to some segments especially imports and our plans to travel to US, UK etc. I am also of the opinion that there are many things Najib can do (which he isn’t at all now) and I will share more soon.
And guys, the international ratings agencies — Fitch, Moody’s and S&P — have all maintained Malaysia’s outlook as stable.
There are no economists out there who are saying that Malaysia’s economy will collapse, only politicians are saying this.

Gone Over The Edge

  
I love the way people reacted to my previous post. I made no mention of who’s who at the meetings, and I was merely writing about what I was told. The reactions, or over-reactions have been priceless. It wasn’t me who stalked them. They should be more aware of their surroundings. Furthermore not one of the above are a leader of any of the opposition-held states. Unless, as the Malays would say: PERASAN.

The police should also investigate the alledged Pemuda UMNO Whatsapp messages that went flying around recently. Messages can be deleted, but the Whatsapp server still stores them. All that is needed is a number or two, and the whole trail of messages can be retrieved.

All attempts or conspiracies to remove the Prime Minister should be investigated. Not because I am protecting Najib Razak, but the institution of the Prime Minister. The last thing Malaysia needs is a vicious cycle of removals and appointments of Prime Ministers that would totally erode the confidence others still have in this country.

On the economic fundamentals of this country, this is what Abdul Wahid Omar had to say:

Back in 1997/98, Malaysia had international reserves below USD30b sufficient to cover 3.2mths of retained imports. We had trade deficit & corporates were highly geared with many borrowing in USD when their income/assets were in MYR. Now even after the recent outflows, our international reserves is more than 3 times larger at USD96.7b as at 31 July 2015 sufficient to cover 7.6 mths of retained imports. 

Our trade surplus reached RM41b for 1st half 2015 notwithstanding the lower oil & commodity prices. And corporates’ balance sheets are much healthier. Our labour market conditions are stable with low unemployment rate of 3%. 

Our banks are well capitalised with core Tier1 capital ratios of 12.5%, liquid & with good asset quality where net impaired loans ratio is at a low of 1.2%. Banks & financial system are well regulated & supervised by BNM. Our fiscal position continues to improve with budget deficit reducing from 3.4% of GDP in 2014 to a target of 3.2% in 2015. We are still on track to achieve GDP growth of between 4.5% to 5.5% this year. That’s what I meant by strong economic fundamentals. 

Rgds. AWO.

Is Selangor No Longer Attractive Economically Or Is The State Government All Talk Cock?

  
It is a Ramadan and a bleak Syawal for the former workers of JVC Kenwood at Section 22 Shah Alam as the factory ceases its operations as reported by The Rakyat Post above.  I am sure the decision to cease operations must have been made much earlier than just a few months or a year ago as any plant closure affects production as well as support services.

Many were too quick to blame the Federal Government as according to them investments come under the purview of the Federal Government. Many however forget that investments in a state comes under the purview of the respective states’ economic development council or committee. 

Does the seemingly bleak economy (despite the A- rating by Fitch) have any role in the closure of the plant? Let us examine:

  
Now it seems that TASCO had come into a sales and purchase agreement with JVC Manufacturing Malaysia Sdm Bhd for the purchase of the said property in 2009. This is a year after Pakatan Rakyat took over the state from Barisan Nasional. Six years on, it seems as if the Selangor SEDC had done nothing to persuade JVC to maintain a plant in Selangor. Why so?

It is easy to put the blame on the Federal Government. However, JVC has been cutting back its workforce not just in Malaysia but worldwide.

“They told us that the factory operations were moving to Thailand,” said a worker.

It was reported last year that JVC had cut its workforce globally by 14% to just under 20,000 people and about 90% of production now took place mostly in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Checks on jobstreet.com have shown that JVC is still hiring staff for its Tampoi plant in Johor.

Similarly, a few metres away from the JVC plant, Ansell Malaysia Sdn Bhd’s operations have also ceased and its workers were retrenched yesterday. The Australian company made healthcare protective gear.

A worker on site said: “They are moving their operations to Melaka. They have already told us about this six months ago and compensation was also paid out.”

Therefore, we are seeing a move out of Selangor not just by JVC but also by other foreign companies as well, unless Melaka and Johor are not in Malaysia, or that these states are not affected by the “slowdown” in the Malaysian economy. 

Maybe it is the hard work that Johor’s and Melaka’s SEDC have put in to ensure that foreign companies do not divest, unlike Selangor’s that was not able to or did not talk to JVC when the sales and purchase agreement was made six years ago.

Maybe Selangor has lost the edge it once had when it was still governed by Barisan Nasional.